Facing the Future
Retail catchments are continuously changing. To provide a bespoke solution which meets this challenge head-on, FSP has worked with the experts at CASA (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis), part of University College, London, to create FSP’s new IMPACT gravity model.
IMPACT allows FSP’s clients to visualise the future retail landscape by simulating how proposed changes in retail provision will alter shopping patterns.
In a world where consumer expenditure growth is hard to find, market share growth is essential. IMPACT can identify likely winners and losers in the retail hierarchy and define the changes required to create a more secure future.
IMPACT meets the needs of your profession.
IMPACT can answer many questions for a variety of professionals, including;
- Investors – which of my assets are threatened by competing retail developments and to what extent?
- Asset Managers – how much additional space could my asset support?
- Developers – will my development achieve the scale of transformation necessary to attract the right occupiers?
- Leasing Agents – where will the location rise to in the retail rankings and what are its future peers?
- Marketing Agencies – where will future customers come from and what will they look like?
- Town Planners – is there commercial capacity for additional floor space and what should be the future role of this location?
- Retailers – which of these potential locations has the best prospects for a new store or branch?
IMPACT is designed to model an infinite variety of scenarios, from ‘What if I do nothing?’ to the most optimistic development pipeline. Working with FSP’s experts will ensure not only that the most accurate modelling assumptions are used but also that results are interpreted and recommendations are made by senior retail professionals with more than twenty years’ experience of applying gravity models.
Find out about IMPACT
To find out how FSP IMPACT can help you, please contact Sales Director, Andrew McVicker one of his team.
IMPACT – the technical detail
FSP has worked with the CASA (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis) part of UCL to create the IMPACT gravity model. This further enhances FSP’s in-house modelling capabilities which already include models for Ireland and London’s West End.
FSP’s experience has shown that nationwide shopper surveys can under-estimate the catchments of certain retail centres – shopper populations tend to be under estimated for smaller centres, as their functions for top-up shopping are not captured, whilst large out-of-town centres do not account for the less frequent, but abundant, numbers of ‘leisure’ shoppers they attract. Large national surveys also suffer a degree of ‘lag’ meaning it takes several years to fully capture the shopping patterns that result from a significant development.
The most accurate way to assess a shopping catchment remains getting people on the ground to conduct shopper surveys. However, these cannot predict the effect of a new development on a centre’s catchment which is why, in partnership with CASA, FSP has developed its advanced gravity model, IMPACT.
IMPACT is calibrated using FSP’s wide range of consumer surveys which, to date, have sampled over half a million shoppers across a range of locations in the country. This is supplemented further by analysis of the retail mix of over 2,500 retail location in Great Britain. Floor space, merchandise mix, FSP FISH segmentation and retailer price points have all been analysed to make sure the model reflects real world observations as closely as possible.
The outcome is a model that allows infinite scenarios to be run and catchments disaggregated by shopping purpose (main, top-up or leisure) and by consumer segmentation. This allows a better understanding of the composition of retail catchments by both consumer type and purpose of shopping trip.
The output of IMPACT can feed into a range of solutions including: estimating changes in residential and shopper profiles, retail areas assessments and competitor impacts and is supported by FSP’s retail experts.